An Electrical Heating Future By 2030
We’ve heard it for a year or so now, that our state is looking to get to all electric heat pumps by 2030. The intent is to move away from gas since it is a finite resource. Truthfully speaking, electric heat pumps are perfectly adequate for coastal living. They provide less cooling than a gas furnace, but also utilize less resources. However it begs the question: is the tradeoff as advantageous as it is being pitched? Firstly, let’s take a look at what advantages they provide and if it’s worth it. Gas being a finite resource makes it difficult for everyone to maintain using it. So at mass scale, converting most of the coastal cities to electric heating is certainly the move. Those on the eastern side of the state near the mountains will need higher output of heat that only gas can provide.
How Much More Efficient Is a Heat Pump?
Humans are naturally resistant to change, and many of the older homes have furnaces installed already. The big sell to heat pumps are that they are going to save in energy costs down the line for users. Looking further into it, it gets a bit complicated. Heat pumps in warmer climates carry a 95% efficiency rating, but their sell is that they use less to get there. Gas furnaces in colder climates can reach up to a 98% efficiency rating, and ultimately have more of an effect. It is very contingent on the rates of electricity either staying the same or having a slight increase. If they go up by a substantial amount, a furnace would be very similar to electrical in output efficiency. In short, air-source heat pumps can save you up to 65% of the energy.
How Much Better Are They For the Environment?
Emissions has been a big focus of the move towards electrical based heating. Less burning of gasses also means less pollution into the ozone layer. Heat pumps do use refrigerant in their technology, which has been a contributor to ozone emissions. Per pound, refrigerant does significant more damage per pound than carbon dioxide. It currently accounts for 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions – double that of aviation. For context, a few pounds of refrigerant lost from homes is equivalent to driving a car for a year. Ironically California has a lower adoption rate for heat pumps than nationwide, but there will be immediate impact once the trend shifts.
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Why Has the Adoption Rate Been So Low?
Ultimately, homeowners are comfortable with sticking to what they have. Houses built a considerable amount of time ago all have gas furnaces, and the up front cost to go electric is considerably high. There are savings in the long run, but not enough for end users to want to make the shift. Even with government incentives, the adoption rate has been low. As technology improves, we do feel that heat pumps will begin to surge near the end of the decade. More resources and research will go into designing better hardware, helping in the long run. Simply put, heat pumps are just not a clear winner at the moment to foster that shift. 
Concluding Thoughts
We do feel that California will get to the goal of 6 million heat pumps in due time, but things must improve. All of the selling points currently we feel have merit, but not enough to make people want to switch. Long term benefits and availability make heat pumps the end game solution, but most shoppers don’t think this way. Through more incentivized rebates, the government can certainly nurture the change, but currently being in a recession makes that hard. We think the growth of tech within the HVAC space will be a leading catalyst that the government is looking for. Most people are not considering emissions when making a decision for their home, but it will be the biggest added benefit from all of this.